Crescat

Global Fiat Currency Debasement: With historically high and unsustainable global debt to GDP levels across the world, we believe central banks will continue their attempts to forestall sovereign debt and banking crises, stimulate the economy, and fight deflation by engineering negative real interest rates, monetizing debts, and working in cahoots with sovereigns to understate true [...]

Posted: February 1, 2012 by Kevin S. (China Real Estate Bubble, Competitive Innovation, Consumer Squeeze, Fixed Income Bubble, Global Fiat Currency Crisis, New Energy Resources)
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Per Shadow Government Statistics: “Continuing $5 Trillion GAAP-Based Federal Deficit Remains Unsustainable, Uncontainable and Unstable.  Against a headline, official quasi-cash-basis and gimmicked reporting of a $1.3 trillion federal budget deficit in 2011, GAAP-based accounting (using generally accepted accounting principles) indicates that the actual 2011 deficit ran somewhat in excess of $5 trillion for the year.  [...]

Posted: January 5, 2012 by Kevin S. (Fixed Income Bubble, Global Fiat Currency Crisis)
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There is a good article just published in CFA Magazine entitled China: Unhedged Risk in Your Portfolio?  Joel Hirsh, CFA, reinforces many of the points we made about China in our latest Macroeconomic Update.  Some highlights: “Chinese government agency estimates suggest China has accumulated bad loans to local governments totaling more than 15 percent of GDP.” “Chinese central [...]

Posted: November 3, 2011 by Kevin S. (China Real Estate Bubble, Global Fiat Currency Crisis)
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Please check out Crescat’s latest macroeconomic research letter.  We discuss the implications of record high global debt levels, China’s unsustainable fixed asset investment binge, the European debt crisis, declinging real household income in the U.S., understated CPI, gargantuan off balance sheet derivatives.  Central banks have been behind an upward spiraling series of bubbles, busts, and bailouts.   The biggest busts and bailouts are likely still ahead of us, possibly the end game [...]

Posted: October 24, 2011 by Kevin S. (China Real Estate Bubble, Competitive Innovation, Consumer Squeeze, Fixed Income Bubble, Global Fiat Currency Crisis)
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Here is a thoughtful analysis by Chris Martenson, rebutting the argument that commodity prices are poised to fall. We agree with his contention that gold is increasingly viewed as a safe haven currency alternative to fiat currencies US$, Euro, etc. We see continued volatility but strong upside for precious metals and other commodities, and we agree [...]

Posted: September 19, 2011 by Dan H. (Commodity Supercycle, Global Fiat Currency Crisis)
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We have oft voiced our view that the growing U.S. debt position is unsustainable, including significant debt on the books ($13T) and unfunded liabilities ($56T and counting). Respected investment commentator Richard Russell espoused on the issue in his Friday commentary. We post some pertinent quotes from Russell’s newsletter below. He also describes his view of investment implications, which [...]

Posted: August 2, 2010 by Dan H. (Fixed Income Bubble, Global Fiat Currency Crisis)
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Rob McEwen, founder and former chairman and CEO of Goldcorp, who grew the company from $50 million to over $10 billion in market cap, identifies pre-conditions today for hyperinflation: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid=106057&sn=Detail&pid=92730

Posted: June 11, 2010 by Kevin S. (Global Fiat Currency Crisis)
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Jim Rogers warns about inflation, money printing, highlights strong value in silver at today’s prices. http://www.heraresearch.com/images/HRN_20100603_Part_03_Interview.pdf

Posted: June 8, 2010 by Kevin S. (Commodity Supercycle, Fixed Income Bubble, Global Fiat Currency Crisis)
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0sS6a9RW2E It’s an hour long but a must view in my opinion.   Almost all Crescat themes reinforced with some important new angles.  Faber really seems to pull it all together this time.

Posted: June 4, 2010 by Kevin S. (Commodity Supercycle, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Bubble, Global Fiat Currency Crisis)
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http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/27/opinion/27einhorn.html?pagewanted=1&th&emc=th

Posted: June 2, 2010 by Kevin S. (Fixed Income Bubble, Global Fiat Currency Crisis)
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