December 7, 2024
The History of US Dollar Cycles Macro regime shifts often stem from systemic imbalances, where excessive concentration of capital in certain sectors, asset classes, or currencies reaches saturation…
Read More »»The Countercyclicality of Gold Mining Stocks
November 7, 2024
The purpose of this research letter is to illustrate the historic countercyclicality of gold mining stocks versus the broad US stock market over a variety of economic…
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The New Role of Monetary Policy
September 27, 2024
What if the rate of inflation is in the process of bottoming out and the Federal Reserve has limited capacity to intervene to contain it? Monetary policy is…
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Asset Bubbles and Inflation
August 31, 2024
The Federal Reserve has signaled lower short-term rates ahead, but two important macro questions have yet to be answered: Do the asset bubbles of the post Global…
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The Bear Case for the Dollar
July 26, 2024
In our view, we stand on the cusp of a major transformation in the foreign exchange (FX) markets: a likely significant depreciation of the US dollar relative…
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Connecting the Critical Nodes
June 30, 2024
Cisco Systems was the most valuable company in the world at the peak of the dot-com bubble in March 2000. Its stock price had reached a high of $80.06 per share giving the company an enterprise value (EV) of $548 billion or 5.5% of US GDP and 37 times sales. Investor exuberance over tech stocks was high. The future economic promise of the Internet for the world economy was strong, but the forward earnings growth rates implicit in tech stock valuations were not achievable...
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The Rise of Hard Assets
May 31, 2024
In essence, our investment approach focuses on identifying significant macro trends and strategically positioning ourselves to capitalize on them, primarily by targeting highly inefficient market segments that have historically been mispriced relative to the potential economic shifts we anticipate. Given the current context of one of the most undisciplined monetary and fiscal environments in history, we firmly believe that the best decade-ahead looking strategy today includes preparation for a likely profound capital migration towards hard assets by investing now in the fundamentally undervalued businesses that find and produce them....
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Making the Most of the New Gold Cycle
April 30, 2024
There are three supporting themes driving our conviction that the timing for investing in gold, silver, copper, and other metal exploration stocks has never been more compelling: …
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A Financially Deglobalized Era
March 26, 2024
Since the early 1980s, the global economy has rejoiced in a long period of significant cooperation among nations in supporting each other’s government financing needs. However, given…
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A Macro Shift at Hand
February 28, 2024
Valuation extremes combined with macro inflection signals provide generational opportunities to position opposite the crowd for potentially large gains. At Crescat, we live for such times. We…
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Buy Low, Sell High
January 14, 2024
The current macro environment across global equity markets presents a sharply divided investment setup for 2024 and the remainder of the decade. While our concerns are fueled…
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A Profusion of Recession Indicators
November 26, 2023
A Profusion of Recession Indicators Despite the growing popularity of the soft-landing narrative, the current scenario presents a multitude of macro factors forewarning a major recession. The dangerous…
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Something More Has to Give
October 30, 2023
Investors in US Treasury bonds have experienced extraordinary losses in the post-Covid stimulus era as evidenced by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Ticker: TLT) which…
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Redefining 60/40 Portfolios
September 16, 2023
We believe conventional investment strategies are poised to undergo a significant restructuring, placing a prominent emphasis on investments in hard assets. As illustrated in the accompanying chart,…
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Violent Repricing
August 23, 2023
There is a high probability of a recession in the next twelve months according to the NY Fed’s statistically significant yield-curve inversion model. One wouldn’t know it…
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Monetary vs. Fiscal Dissonance
July 21, 2023
Monetary and fiscal authorities are currently running what we believe are unsustainably divergent policies. The simultaneous rise in the cost of debt by central banks and their…
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Three Overriding Macro Themes
June 24, 2023
Dear Investors: At Crescat, we have three overriding, high-conviction macro themes supported by our independent research and proprietary models that we believe are poised to unfold in rapid…
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Whistling Past the Graveyard
April 26, 2023
US policymakers continue to act as if they have the stability of the financial system, the economy, and consumer prices under control. Instead, their ongoing deficit spending…
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Loosely Tight Conditions
February 24, 2023
The last 12 months have marked one of the steepest Fed rate-hiking cycles in history. Meanwhile, financial conditions remain too loose for secular inflationary forces but too…
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Mispriced Inflation
January 22, 2023
In our view, inflation is the most mispriced macro variable in markets today. CPI growth is 5.1% higher over the last two years, but five-year forward inflation…
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